* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 09/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 51 58 60 62 58 58 57 55 54 55 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 51 58 60 62 58 58 57 55 54 55 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 52 54 52 49 47 45 43 42 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 5 4 3 6 6 17 18 23 29 22 25 23 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 3 1 0 3 9 7 10 6 5 11 7 6 3 1 SHEAR DIR 102 91 65 73 76 327 279 234 251 251 247 255 232 240 233 244 212 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.5 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.4 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 126 125 125 120 114 116 117 116 118 118 126 124 126 128 134 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 124 123 122 116 110 110 111 110 110 110 115 110 110 110 115 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 68 64 60 55 53 51 52 52 52 49 46 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 23 23 24 23 24 23 24 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 72 85 97 109 120 129 127 113 98 69 62 18 0 -17 -16 -15 -12 200 MB DIV 8 17 23 42 42 29 12 37 8 2 0 -10 15 27 24 15 -7 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -11 -8 -4 0 6 13 22 17 16 13 12 9 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 801 937 1075 1214 1353 1634 1916 2105 2013 1952 1948 1998 1921 1846 1795 1783 1771 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.7 22.2 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.9 26.2 27.5 28.8 30.1 32.7 35.3 37.8 40.2 42.4 44.5 46.5 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 12 11 7 6 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 3 6 2 0 0 0 2 4 3 10 12 11 11 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 28. 30. 32. 28. 28. 27. 25. 24. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 24.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 09/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.3% 10.2% 7.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 27.3% 14.6% 4.0% 3.6% 14.5% 12.1% 4.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 8.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.2% Consensus: 4.8% 17.1% 8.9% 3.8% 3.5% 5.4% 4.6% 1.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 09/01/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 46 51 58 60 62 58 58 57 55 54 55 60 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 43 48 55 57 59 55 55 54 52 51 52 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 42 49 51 53 49 49 48 46 45 46 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 41 43 45 41 41 40 38 37 38 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT