* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 104 94 89 84 78 75 73 74 71 67 64 65 65 69 69 69 V (KT) LAND 115 104 94 89 84 78 75 73 74 71 67 64 65 65 69 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 115 107 101 96 92 86 80 73 66 61 56 54 53 55 57 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 25 22 23 20 14 13 10 8 5 2 2 8 14 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -2 0 0 4 7 5 4 0 4 4 0 4 7 9 SHEAR DIR 66 59 67 65 63 76 90 128 134 138 178 261 283 231 247 226 225 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.8 26.3 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 150 150 147 142 132 127 125 122 127 122 125 124 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 63 64 65 62 59 55 50 50 47 45 44 43 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 29 29 30 28 28 29 28 27 26 26 24 27 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 57 63 74 74 78 98 104 100 94 82 79 80 76 66 62 43 33 200 MB DIV 16 18 8 12 17 35 29 24 1 -5 -25 -11 13 16 22 17 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 1 -2 0 0 3 4 8 5 11 13 LAND (KM) 1224 1299 1375 1452 1533 1691 1834 2008 2165 1844 1569 1328 1112 913 757 663 613 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.2 122.0 123.0 123.9 126.0 128.6 131.4 134.2 137.2 139.8 142.1 144.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 15 16 15 28 5 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -18. -27. -35. -41. -47. -51. -52. -54. -56. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -17. -12. -7. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -26. -31. -37. -40. -42. -41. -44. -48. -51. -50. -50. -46. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.8 120.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##