* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 110 104 98 91 86 89 88 83 77 73 69 70 72 73 73 V (KT) LAND 125 118 110 104 98 91 86 89 88 83 77 73 69 70 72 73 73 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 115 109 104 96 89 83 75 68 62 57 55 55 59 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 19 21 20 17 11 10 5 9 5 4 5 9 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 1 0 2 1 7 6 5 3 0 2 0 4 4 12 SHEAR DIR 76 68 64 61 59 64 74 84 115 155 197 268 270 236 223 230 226 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.4 26.3 25.7 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.0 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 150 150 145 139 129 128 121 124 123 125 123 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 62 62 62 60 58 54 53 51 46 44 42 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 28 28 29 31 29 32 31 29 27 26 24 23 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 55 70 76 104 115 109 114 91 92 91 87 71 70 50 51 200 MB DIV 27 5 17 15 24 45 43 32 24 -17 -18 -18 -5 11 23 26 30 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -6 -3 -2 -3 4 0 6 6 7 14 23 LAND (KM) 1164 1238 1313 1398 1484 1656 1797 1948 2116 2014 1737 1474 1226 1006 818 676 584 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.7 121.5 122.4 123.3 125.3 127.6 130.2 132.8 135.6 138.2 140.7 143.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 14 15 19 16 15 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -23. -33. -42. -50. -56. -60. -62. -64. -66. -69. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. -18. -12. -6. -2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -21. -27. -34. -39. -36. -37. -42. -48. -52. -56. -55. -53. -52. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.1 119.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 574.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##