* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 71 66 60 48 38 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 71 66 60 48 38 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 72 67 61 49 36 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 14 21 25 27 34 38 46 43 41 37 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 13 8 10 8 3 4 1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 232 233 232 229 231 221 220 216 223 244 264 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.4 24.5 24.7 24.4 25.0 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 132 129 127 121 117 117 108 111 108 114 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 65 62 58 51 44 41 41 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 20 19 18 16 12 10 7 5 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 41 45 54 47 31 0 -2 -15 -18 -31 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 73 76 68 87 58 69 23 32 28 -7 0 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 10 15 17 21 25 27 21 16 15 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1443 1418 1400 1388 1381 1335 1254 1195 1124 1082 1035 1007 1009 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.5 21.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 27.2 28.5 29.5 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.6 142.1 143.2 144.4 146.1 148.0 150.3 152.8 155.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18. -23. -29. -34. -39. -44. -47. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 3. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -17. -21. -24. -24. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -15. -27. -37. -49. -56. -63. -67. -71. -72. -76. -80. -83. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.2 141.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##