* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 60 69 73 78 79 80 77 74 70 67 66 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 60 69 73 78 79 80 77 74 70 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 46 51 55 61 64 66 64 62 59 56 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 11 6 6 10 9 6 3 9 9 16 18 28 30 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 6 10 3 -2 -4 1 0 5 4 9 4 3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 47 43 102 130 84 97 106 240 254 237 241 232 242 250 255 252 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.3 25.3 26.3 27.1 27.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 133 131 123 112 113 113 112 112 108 108 116 125 128 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 128 132 130 120 109 108 106 105 105 99 99 105 111 112 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 74 72 72 71 67 61 54 48 48 50 49 49 49 50 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 24 25 27 26 28 26 28 28 28 27 28 26 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 99 93 94 87 106 149 160 144 137 119 109 79 65 37 19 7 20 200 MB DIV 84 73 58 77 79 36 23 -15 8 -3 -6 4 25 12 0 11 -2 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -3 -3 -3 -7 -4 0 0 7 16 17 28 21 20 14 7 LAND (KM) 347 428 521 656 796 1117 1431 1724 1997 2133 2076 2043 2056 2093 2005 1955 1916 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.5 24.9 27.9 30.8 33.5 36.0 38.3 40.4 42.4 44.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 15 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 30. 39. 43. 48. 49. 50. 47. 44. 40. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 20.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.0% 10.1% 7.0% 6.4% 9.3% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.2% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.9% 5.0% 2.8% 2.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/31/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 54 60 69 73 78 79 80 77 74 70 67 66 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 49 55 64 68 73 74 75 72 69 65 62 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 42 48 57 61 66 67 68 65 62 58 55 54 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 37 46 50 55 56 57 54 51 47 44 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT