* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 73 71 63 54 42 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 73 71 63 54 42 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 71 62 51 39 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 10 18 26 38 37 45 45 45 46 50 49 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 0 6 0 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 306 295 251 242 235 229 225 220 225 231 254 263 271 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.8 25.2 25.6 24.8 25.6 25.5 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 140 137 129 126 121 121 116 120 112 120 119 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.8 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 70 73 76 73 70 64 62 54 52 48 46 42 40 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 20 18 18 13 12 9 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 43 43 39 42 57 44 21 3 -9 -24 -38 -45 -36 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 26 49 60 55 102 63 35 29 20 2 -16 -21 -22 -40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 4 8 13 20 15 21 19 11 4 6 -3 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1592 1536 1481 1446 1415 1380 1317 1243 1143 1021 928 840 760 702 670 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.5 20.0 21.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 26.4 27.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.8 141.2 141.5 141.6 141.7 141.7 142.2 143.0 144.3 146.2 148.3 150.5 153.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 18 18 14 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -21. -27. -33. -39. -45. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. -18. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -16. -28. -35. -43. -50. -57. -63. -70. -76. -80. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.4 140.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 19.8% 15.6% 11.9% 8.4% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 7.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 10.1% 6.2% 4.6% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##