* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 68 67 64 57 50 39 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 68 67 64 57 50 39 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 69 68 64 56 45 34 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 8 9 21 30 39 42 46 43 48 45 45 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 7 10 12 10 6 5 2 2 2 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 310 291 274 230 233 229 220 222 220 226 239 250 255 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.9 25.1 24.6 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 147 145 143 134 129 125 122 119 112 114 108 110 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 70 74 74 72 68 63 58 55 49 47 48 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 20 20 20 19 18 14 11 9 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 42 45 41 39 52 55 34 7 0 -11 -25 -50 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 2 24 53 55 75 85 56 37 12 38 7 -3 0 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 0 2 10 14 19 17 22 18 17 15 7 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1665 1605 1545 1498 1453 1399 1343 1278 1199 1112 1036 973 937 955 993 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.4 19.0 20.6 22.2 23.7 25.1 26.3 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.2 140.7 141.1 141.3 141.6 141.7 142.0 142.6 143.6 145.0 146.7 148.6 150.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 18 16 15 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -31. -36. -41. -46. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -12. -14. -17. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -15. -26. -35. -42. -49. -55. -62. -67. -71. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.1 140.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 22.1% 18.0% 14.0% 10.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.9% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 12.0% 7.2% 5.3% 3.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##