* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 27 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 27 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 48 51 50 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 225 236 243 241 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 142 139 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 47 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 97 89 85 76 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 35 26 27 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 11 12 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 883 884 893 919 958 1058 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.8 22.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.3 168.6 168.8 169.2 169.5 170.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 25 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -9. -24. -41. -56. -66. -71. -73. -75. -78. -87. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 0. -8. -17. -26. -34. -37. -38. -39. -41. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.3 168.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 61.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/29/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING