* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 60 59 59 54 45 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 60 59 59 54 45 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 56 56 57 56 52 46 37 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 12 12 14 14 15 25 41 52 61 65 58 49 42 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -2 -7 -2 3 6 3 5 -4 -3 -6 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 324 323 316 312 310 308 277 263 236 242 228 223 218 221 219 233 246 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.5 26.4 25.6 24.9 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 139 139 143 140 134 128 128 120 113 104 103 99 98 94 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -52.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 68 69 71 72 74 71 66 62 65 64 63 58 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 21 20 17 16 14 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 6 11 16 34 41 46 57 60 55 35 -3 -25 -49 -65 -89 200 MB DIV 5 7 1 5 8 3 25 67 61 41 63 33 8 -5 10 2 9 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 9 19 14 18 19 27 23 15 5 LAND (KM) 2398 2296 2193 2089 1986 1801 1647 1526 1432 1371 1329 1314 1322 1354 1397 1450 1538 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.7 15.6 16.9 18.5 20.5 22.6 24.9 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.0 134.0 135.0 136.0 137.0 138.6 139.8 140.6 141.2 141.7 142.4 143.4 144.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 10 13 11 12 8 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -23. -31. -39. -46. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. 1. -1. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 4. -1. -10. -19. -30. -43. -52. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 133.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 16.8% 14.6% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 8.1% Logistic: 1.4% 5.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.6% 5.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.2% 3.9% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##