* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 63 67 69 71 71 64 63 54 43 31 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 63 67 69 71 71 64 63 54 43 31 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 59 60 63 66 64 59 53 43 32 24 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 11 9 15 9 12 13 29 35 47 56 64 58 46 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 0 -6 -4 0 2 3 8 8 1 -10 -8 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 305 315 316 326 324 321 287 274 246 235 225 218 217 220 216 230 244 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.5 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 143 143 140 140 137 131 129 123 119 109 106 107 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.7 -53.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 69 69 71 74 75 74 70 67 63 62 59 57 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 19 19 20 21 23 23 20 22 20 17 15 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 -4 9 11 31 39 44 41 50 70 37 15 -11 -24 -37 -32 200 MB DIV 3 12 17 14 10 -1 48 66 67 66 75 65 55 8 10 18 19 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -7 -6 -6 -3 -1 4 13 16 23 28 28 30 25 6 LAND (KM) 2346 2383 2275 2173 2071 1877 1729 1593 1472 1393 1324 1302 1279 1290 1289 1315 1390 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.3 15.0 16.0 17.4 19.2 21.2 23.4 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.2 134.2 135.2 136.2 138.0 139.2 140.2 141.0 141.5 142.2 142.9 144.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 14 15 16 10 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -10. -18. -26. -34. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 10. 6. 9. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 9. 8. -1. -12. -24. -36. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 132.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 22.4% 17.2% 12.7% 9.0% 11.5% 12.5% 10.0% Logistic: 3.6% 12.6% 3.9% 2.3% 0.5% 1.7% 2.8% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 12.7% 7.1% 5.0% 3.2% 4.5% 5.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##