* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 20 16 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 20 16 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 34 39 41 40 51 47 49 42 28 5 22 28 33 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 1 -1 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 242 242 240 237 234 232 236 233 218 138 342 303 312 298 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 143 143 140 139 140 136 128 120 119 117 116 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -56.3 -56.9 -57.2 -56.7 -56.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 51 50 54 56 59 55 55 57 64 70 73 71 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 65 71 71 81 80 80 65 32 17 46 72 73 117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 26 16 37 65 47 70 48 66 -4 43 53 39 31 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 1 4 14 20 19 11 4 -1 4 9 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 454 516 583 630 680 733 791 923 1161 1489 1811 2096 2334 2444 2238 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.9 21.5 23.8 26.3 29.0 31.3 33.0 34.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.1 164.9 165.5 166.1 167.0 167.9 169.0 170.6 172.8 175.1 177.4 179.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 8 11 13 16 16 14 12 10 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 27 23 22 21 17 19 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -21. -34. -44. -46. -45. -46. -47. -52. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -12. -11. -13. -18. -26. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 163.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING