* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 32 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 32 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 31 27 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 39 39 38 40 44 53 54 50 46 35 9 8 17 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 3 2 4 9 9 5 4 0 0 -5 -6 -2 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 268 260 260 262 257 265 239 231 222 228 234 223 238 321 355 344 325 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.1 25.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 141 143 143 143 141 140 143 139 126 124 121 114 113 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.9 -56.7 -57.1 -56.2 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 52 47 46 43 43 45 50 52 59 56 54 51 51 56 61 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 40 42 51 65 72 81 92 92 77 61 21 30 0 30 80 200 MB DIV -12 -3 -6 -18 -25 37 46 21 60 50 52 9 -3 -8 -11 37 86 700-850 TADV 0 1 -3 -1 -3 -3 2 4 14 24 22 12 8 6 -2 5 9 LAND (KM) 215 232 210 220 254 375 492 599 707 855 1073 1362 1659 1955 2190 2368 2395 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.8 23.4 25.5 27.9 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.1 159.6 160.1 160.8 161.6 163.3 164.7 165.9 167.1 168.4 170.0 172.0 174.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 7 6 7 9 11 14 14 14 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 23 33 38 34 23 18 20 18 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -22. -34. -44. -52. -56. -54. -51. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -20. -25. -31. -34. -39. -41. -40. -38. -42. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.6 159.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING