* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 101 95 86 73 61 50 45 41 38 38 36 34 33 35 36 V (KT) LAND 115 107 101 95 86 73 61 50 45 41 38 38 36 34 33 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 115 108 100 92 84 69 58 49 42 38 34 32 30 29 29 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 12 16 19 30 34 43 44 43 38 36 30 26 7 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 8 8 15 10 6 0 4 6 1 6 6 5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 247 247 235 233 262 264 274 274 269 255 246 241 247 256 248 234 4 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.7 26.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 137 137 137 140 141 143 145 145 143 140 142 142 131 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 62 60 58 48 42 43 46 51 47 45 43 43 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 23 19 17 14 12 11 11 11 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 76 66 44 35 39 46 59 71 85 93 108 118 117 92 39 200 MB DIV 75 77 109 91 73 28 -6 -26 -4 19 44 66 38 24 14 13 -12 700-850 TADV 2 2 7 8 18 21 3 -1 -6 0 1 7 10 1 2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 303 255 219 202 204 166 153 165 206 318 452 607 743 873 1034 1265 1517 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.1 20.4 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.2 157.4 157.5 157.7 157.8 158.2 159.0 160.2 161.4 162.7 164.2 165.9 167.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 39 41 39 38 37 21 22 38 41 26 19 19 19 18 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -22. -30. -37. -42. -46. -48. -49. -49. -50. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -30. -25. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -9. -15. -18. -18. -18. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -29. -42. -54. -65. -70. -74. -77. -77. -79. -81. -82. -80. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.6 157.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING