* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 137 132 127 120 106 91 75 66 56 49 42 37 33 30 31 34 V (KT) LAND 140 137 132 127 120 106 91 75 66 56 49 42 37 33 30 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 140 134 127 119 112 98 83 70 60 51 45 40 37 34 33 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 5 11 13 15 25 32 38 45 50 47 38 38 30 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -3 1 11 11 8 7 0 0 -2 4 0 5 6 SHEAR DIR 179 209 229 203 203 237 253 262 263 266 265 263 260 260 253 268 296 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 142 139 138 141 139 141 145 144 141 141 144 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 60 57 63 64 64 63 58 57 48 41 41 45 47 47 42 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 22 21 22 19 14 14 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 62 53 52 59 66 71 47 43 39 40 47 56 64 80 72 64 46 200 MB DIV 63 46 52 58 65 106 94 45 18 -18 -6 7 12 8 -16 -13 -39 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 2 2 5 5 7 -4 -8 -9 -4 -6 -4 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 515 456 403 342 288 189 183 123 108 82 217 372 538 728 911 1110 1314 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.7 19.0 20.2 20.9 21.2 21.1 20.9 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.2 154.8 155.4 155.9 156.3 157.0 157.6 158.3 159.4 160.7 162.2 163.7 165.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 29 25 26 37 37 34 17 25 33 22 17 18 30 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -36. -48. -57. -65. -71. -75. -75. -75. -76. -79. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -7. -12. -18. -23. -26. -21. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -3. -9. -12. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -20. -34. -49. -65. -74. -84. -91. -98.-103.-107.-110.-109.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 14.5 154.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 641.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING