* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 112 111 104 99 97 92 84 79 75 70 64 58 53 49 V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 112 111 104 99 97 92 84 79 75 70 64 58 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 112 110 107 100 92 86 78 72 66 61 56 51 47 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 6 3 3 1 10 4 10 17 28 35 43 44 52 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 7 12 10 9 7 -1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 107 166 175 202 212 241 206 229 236 258 272 262 260 273 265 265 271 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 142 142 145 143 140 138 139 138 137 139 140 141 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 58 60 62 61 60 59 54 54 49 45 42 40 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 22 21 22 25 23 19 17 16 14 13 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 42 47 55 59 65 69 67 61 42 38 46 64 73 79 83 200 MB DIV 45 76 56 35 41 39 58 68 96 84 34 6 -2 0 4 16 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 10 1 0 -1 -6 -2 -1 6 LAND (KM) 834 767 704 641 582 478 382 299 258 275 214 154 173 279 416 574 730 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.8 19.8 20.4 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.7 151.6 152.5 153.3 154.8 156.0 156.9 157.8 158.6 159.4 160.2 161.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 13 19 39 27 27 43 33 13 15 28 29 22 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -35. -41. -45. -48. -49. -49. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 4. -1. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 5. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -4. -11. -16. -18. -23. -31. -36. -40. -45. -51. -57. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.7 149.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 619.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING