* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 98 96 94 93 94 94 93 94 92 89 84 83 78 73 69 V (KT) LAND 105 100 98 96 94 93 94 94 93 94 92 89 84 83 78 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 97 94 92 90 91 93 94 88 82 75 69 66 61 55 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 6 6 4 1 3 5 4 4 6 11 19 28 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -6 -6 -2 3 8 6 3 2 3 10 9 9 4 4 SHEAR DIR 287 284 238 268 281 346 166 185 257 260 271 315 267 243 246 250 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 148 151 146 147 148 148 143 139 138 139 139 139 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 59 60 57 56 57 62 62 63 62 58 50 45 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 20 21 21 22 22 24 24 21 17 16 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -14 5 20 31 44 43 50 53 67 77 85 76 61 40 33 35 44 200 MB DIV 15 10 13 -15 16 30 55 63 76 22 34 70 72 70 25 -16 -26 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 0 -1 0 5 7 5 6 3 -4 3 5 -3 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 1454 1344 1235 1137 1042 882 739 620 508 425 401 452 482 460 492 585 705 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.9 144.0 145.1 146.1 147.1 148.9 150.7 152.4 154.1 155.9 157.6 159.3 160.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 19 24 22 16 17 20 34 27 17 28 33 31 20 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -25. -29. -33. -35. -36. -37. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 6. 2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -11. -13. -16. -21. -22. -27. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.1 142.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING