* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 97 94 91 86 84 84 82 86 86 87 87 86 84 81 73 V (KT) LAND 110 103 97 94 91 86 84 84 82 86 86 87 87 86 84 81 73 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 98 93 89 85 85 85 83 82 81 80 79 76 73 68 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 9 13 12 9 9 9 3 6 5 5 9 19 30 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 2 3 -2 -2 6 10 11 8 4 SHEAR DIR 276 283 275 277 280 299 253 265 246 202 241 262 243 226 241 245 250 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 145 148 149 145 147 149 147 142 138 139 138 140 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 63 63 58 56 56 59 64 65 67 64 59 52 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 15 16 16 18 20 19 22 23 24 23 23 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 4 22 26 29 33 42 52 61 76 69 63 43 56 58 33 200 MB DIV 58 13 9 21 27 43 42 33 52 63 61 71 104 100 52 13 -21 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 4 3 -1 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 1593 1469 1347 1243 1141 968 824 697 582 478 425 441 528 536 565 663 805 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.8 144.0 145.0 146.1 148.0 149.7 151.4 153.1 154.8 156.6 158.3 160.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 18 19 25 18 17 17 24 38 21 19 30 32 23 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -23. -29. -33. -37. -40. -40. -41. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -6. -3. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 8. 8. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -19. -24. -26. -26. -28. -24. -24. -23. -23. -24. -26. -29. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 12.8 141.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING