* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 40 41 39 39 39 38 36 34 31 28 26 27 28 30 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 40 41 39 39 39 38 36 34 31 28 26 27 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 17 23 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 281 257 251 246 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.3 17.4 14.6 14.3 14.9 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 78 74 74 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 74 71 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.4 -56.9 -56.5 -56.3 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 57 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -37 -35 -53 -53 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 15 3 5 3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 30 14 23 22 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1386 1549 1233 908 595 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.4 47.8 49.2 50.4 51.5 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.6 30.9 27.2 23.0 18.9 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 29 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 25 CX,CY: 19/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 46.4 34.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 40 40 41 39 39 39 38 36 34 31 28 26 27 28 30 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 41 39 39 39 38 36 34 31 28 26 27 28 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 35 35 35 34 32 30 27 24 22 23 24 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 29 29 28 26 24 21 18 16 17 18 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT