* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 85 89 95 96 93 93 90 85 82 78 76 76 76 72 V (KT) LAND 70 76 81 85 89 95 96 93 93 90 85 82 78 76 76 76 72 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 86 89 97 100 99 96 91 83 76 70 64 61 61 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 4 1 4 3 7 9 10 7 18 20 13 17 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 0 -4 2 0 2 6 11 5 9 6 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 349 356 344 339 235 274 305 306 298 328 305 276 276 275 272 292 280 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.9 28.2 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 146 150 153 150 144 147 139 142 143 143 142 143 138 140 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 66 64 59 55 55 53 50 55 61 61 59 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 18 20 22 22 24 25 22 23 22 21 21 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 1 0 0 15 18 22 31 33 43 37 35 36 52 46 39 200 MB DIV 86 76 49 42 42 70 65 53 68 35 18 6 17 9 4 35 16 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -9 -7 -6 -2 -1 4 8 10 13 12 8 7 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 2456 2542 2434 2278 2123 1829 1556 1305 1063 851 651 491 363 387 552 687 807 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.7 132.1 133.5 135.0 136.4 139.1 141.6 143.9 146.2 148.3 150.5 152.7 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 12 8 10 13 21 20 20 13 22 18 26 19 26 32 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 9. 9. 6. 5. 5. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 26. 26. 23. 23. 20. 15. 12. 8. 6. 6. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.3 130.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.7% 37.0% 32.6% 25.1% 15.4% 19.2% 16.5% 12.4% Logistic: 20.9% 43.7% 33.7% 26.3% 10.3% 17.1% 7.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 23.0% 40.0% 21.7% 12.7% 7.3% 10.9% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 24.2% 40.2% 29.3% 21.3% 11.0% 15.7% 8.4% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##