* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 47 48 45 45 45 43 41 41 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 47 48 45 45 45 43 41 41 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 42 43 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 9 5 7 7 9 21 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 314 323 328 318 296 260 259 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.4 25.2 25.3 22.5 20.2 15.6 14.9 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 108 110 93 84 75 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 92 94 82 77 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.4 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -57.4 -56.9 -56.3 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 48 50 53 64 67 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -71 -76 -88 -74 -12 -25 -35 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -4 29 19 17 35 10 10 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 14 16 12 25 33 30 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1033 999 980 1016 1078 1365 1290 670 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.3 41.3 42.5 43.7 46.3 49.0 51.5 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.4 44.4 43.4 41.7 40.0 34.9 27.9 20.0 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 20 25 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 6. 6. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 39.3 45.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.1% 8.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 41 45 47 48 45 45 45 43 41 41 41 42 45 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 43 45 46 43 43 43 41 39 39 39 40 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 40 41 38 38 38 36 34 34 34 35 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 33 34 31 31 31 29 27 27 27 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT