* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 62 67 77 86 90 91 94 97 96 96 93 90 86 84 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 62 67 77 86 90 91 94 97 96 96 93 90 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 57 63 74 85 93 97 99 98 95 92 86 80 72 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 10 9 9 5 5 2 5 3 4 9 24 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 3 0 2 2 6 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 59 58 58 45 32 41 35 15 314 334 14 277 299 255 278 289 287 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 143 143 144 147 150 148 145 138 144 145 140 138 137 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 71 72 69 68 66 61 58 57 55 53 47 48 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 14 14 18 19 20 21 23 23 25 25 26 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -17 -15 -12 -8 1 7 16 9 13 16 24 32 43 43 53 52 200 MB DIV 59 81 83 88 57 68 30 63 42 67 65 58 40 26 18 -11 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -7 -5 -1 0 2 4 7 9 5 4 LAND (KM) 1999 2080 2165 2238 2315 2480 2449 2172 1897 1643 1401 1165 939 721 529 372 340 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.1 126.3 127.4 128.5 130.9 133.4 135.9 138.4 140.7 142.9 145.1 147.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 19 19 21 19 10 9 12 14 30 10 17 26 16 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 15. 13. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 27. 37. 46. 50. 51. 54. 57. 56. 56. 53. 50. 46. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.6 123.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 7.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -9.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 63.3% 45.6% 28.9% 20.7% 21.1% 58.1% 53.4% Logistic: 51.1% 72.9% 60.9% 50.8% 44.2% 46.5% 46.6% 30.5% Bayesian: 35.4% 71.2% 59.5% 45.0% 16.6% 43.5% 22.9% 0.7% Consensus: 36.4% 69.1% 55.3% 41.6% 27.2% 37.0% 42.5% 28.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##