* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 43 47 49 53 51 51 51 49 48 48 49 51 54 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 43 47 49 53 51 51 51 49 48 48 49 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 7 6 8 8 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 310 320 310 318 310 280 253 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 25.3 25.4 20.8 17.2 13.9 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 119 109 111 86 77 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 99 92 95 78 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.4 -56.8 -56.8 -57.2 -57.4 -56.6 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 49 50 60 66 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -57 -69 -73 -86 -48 -17 -19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 8 -11 22 21 34 23 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 14 13 12 42 43 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1075 1023 979 973 988 1178 1560 1021 518 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.5 40.4 41.5 42.5 45.1 47.9 50.8 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 45.3 44.6 43.4 42.1 37.9 31.9 24.9 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 17 22 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 18. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 18. 16. 16. 16. 14. 13. 13. 14. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.6 45.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.3% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 42 43 47 49 53 51 51 51 49 48 48 49 51 54 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 43 45 49 47 47 47 45 44 44 45 47 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 40 44 42 42 42 40 39 39 40 42 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 32 36 34 34 34 32 31 31 32 34 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT