* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052018 08/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 46 48 49 50 50 50 49 48 49 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 46 48 49 50 50 50 49 48 49 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 45 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 11 8 9 8 8 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 300 314 322 316 321 311 294 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.2 22.5 19.7 15.1 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 121 121 119 108 93 83 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 99 99 99 92 83 77 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.5 -56.5 -56.8 -57.1 -57.7 -57.3 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 46 49 55 65 70 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -34 -53 -70 -69 -70 -31 -37 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 11 7 -22 14 8 39 3 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 13 13 23 19 37 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1153 1096 1043 1004 980 1071 1376 1273 736 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 38.6 39.3 40.3 41.3 43.7 46.5 49.4 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 45.5 45.2 44.3 43.4 40.1 34.7 27.9 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 14 21 25 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.8 45.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 FIVE 08/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.18 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 FIVE 08/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 FIVE 08/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 46 48 49 50 50 50 49 48 49 50 52 54 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 43 45 46 47 47 47 46 45 46 47 49 51 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 37 39 40 41 41 41 40 39 40 41 43 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 31 32 33 33 33 32 31 32 33 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT