* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 29 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 29 26 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 10 7 13 11 7 8 19 24 33 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 3 4 2 0 6 12 5 6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 331 337 350 324 329 325 318 224 222 235 243 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.8 24.3 24.3 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 103 103 102 99 98 104 104 100 100 101 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 59 57 53 51 49 45 47 44 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 21 30 26 8 -5 -16 -17 -27 -28 -26 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -2 -22 -13 -33 -12 -23 -9 -9 -5 -2 36 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 2 2 2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1728 1728 1728 1744 1757 1779 1818 1868 1939 1885 1755 1640 1529 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.5 130.7 131.0 131.3 132.1 133.1 134.3 135.6 137.1 138.5 139.8 141.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -28. -29. -32. -35. -40. -45. -46. -48. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##