* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 88 83 78 73 72 75 79 77 77 77 76 74 74 73 68 V (KT) LAND 105 96 88 83 78 73 72 75 79 77 77 77 76 74 74 73 68 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 87 84 76 71 68 70 75 77 76 73 69 64 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 20 22 21 25 19 12 4 3 8 11 7 4 1 0 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 5 8 4 -2 -4 -5 -1 -2 -1 0 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 219 212 214 200 201 217 218 231 163 150 172 137 144 56 96 136 202 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.3 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.7 25.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 144 142 138 138 131 131 134 135 133 128 125 130 119 102 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 47 48 52 50 52 52 51 45 44 43 45 43 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 18 18 19 17 16 18 17 17 18 17 15 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 38 30 30 14 -17 -34 -48 -61 -76 -96 -137 -156 -167 -154 -140 200 MB DIV 70 40 20 24 17 17 3 5 11 -13 4 -55 -50 -9 -1 51 113 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 7 7 4 2 -2 -4 -5 -2 1 0 1 2 18 -6 LAND (KM) 956 1028 1109 1194 1287 1504 1775 2077 2365 2652 2674 2468 2270 2080 1897 1728 1554 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.7 21.5 23.4 25.0 26.4 27.6 28.8 29.9 31.0 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 168.7 169.7 170.7 171.7 172.7 174.8 177.3 180.1 182.8 185.5 188.1 190.5 192.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 21 14 12 7 6 4 2 3 3 3 1 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -42. -43. -45. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -11. -7. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -4. -6. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -22. -27. -32. -33. -30. -26. -28. -28. -28. -29. -31. -31. -32. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.5 168.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 837.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##