* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 44 42 34 30 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 47 44 42 34 30 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 48 45 41 35 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 13 7 11 11 14 0 10 11 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 2 5 2 4 2 15 8 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 340 336 338 335 323 333 322 250 212 195 218 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.2 24.0 24.2 24.1 23.4 23.4 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 106 103 102 102 104 102 101 103 102 95 94 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 61 55 54 51 48 45 43 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 15 16 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 23 22 23 31 8 8 -9 -8 -20 -19 -18 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 17 -11 -26 -11 -25 -7 -17 -6 -33 -10 -6 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 0 3 2 6 5 2 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1741 1724 1708 1711 1714 1751 1770 1801 1845 1909 1929 1817 1698 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.1 130.2 130.4 130.6 131.2 132.1 133.1 134.2 135.4 136.7 137.9 139.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -13. -21. -25. -32. -36. -39. -43. -47. -51. -51. -51. -51. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.2 130.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##