* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 114 110 104 91 83 80 80 80 78 75 68 60 53 48 47 V (KT) LAND 120 118 114 110 104 91 83 80 80 80 78 75 68 60 53 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 114 110 106 97 85 75 69 69 69 67 65 61 55 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 18 23 30 31 25 10 12 9 5 11 15 14 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 5 7 5 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -7 -6 -5 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 219 213 208 212 212 205 215 208 211 195 165 179 18 25 34 78 222 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.9 24.7 25.3 25.4 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 144 147 143 137 134 131 124 110 116 117 107 102 100 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 47 47 48 53 52 52 54 55 50 51 52 57 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 22 20 21 20 19 20 20 20 18 16 15 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 45 42 39 30 14 -14 -35 -52 -48 -37 -62 -55 -66 -111 -73 200 MB DIV 93 73 80 70 39 43 27 6 15 14 11 -14 -9 -6 -4 19 36 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 3 0 11 12 10 10 1 4 0 0 2 7 4 3 LAND (KM) 800 873 958 1033 1118 1305 1549 1809 2085 2370 2619 2497 2295 2126 1998 1884 1772 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.3 22.0 23.9 25.8 27.6 29.3 31.0 32.5 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.6 167.8 168.9 169.9 170.9 172.9 175.2 177.5 179.9 182.4 184.5 186.2 187.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 29 21 23 20 13 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -14. -23. -32. -41. -48. -54. -59. -61. -64. -67. -72. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -18. -16. -12. -9. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -16. -29. -37. -40. -40. -40. -42. -45. -52. -60. -67. -72. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.8 166.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 917.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##