* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 57 55 51 44 36 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 57 55 51 44 36 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 55 51 43 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 7 13 9 13 13 19 14 2 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 3 5 2 0 2 7 8 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 23 20 352 347 345 340 342 330 327 227 161 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.3 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 117 112 106 102 99 98 95 93 92 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 60 62 63 58 54 49 47 43 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 14 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 14 28 28 42 23 16 -5 -17 -32 -33 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 15 31 30 -8 -10 -28 -4 -4 1 -23 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 1 1 3 2 4 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1825 1773 1722 1682 1644 1609 1610 1597 1569 1556 1534 1519 1509 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.5 26.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 129.7 129.5 129.4 129.3 129.4 129.8 130.3 131.0 131.7 132.3 132.8 133.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -5. -9. -16. -24. -30. -37. -43. -47. -52. -59. -59. -59. -59. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.6 129.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##