* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 108 105 99 89 83 80 77 76 71 68 63 54 47 43 42 V (KT) LAND 115 113 108 105 99 89 83 80 77 76 71 68 63 54 47 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 110 106 102 96 86 76 68 63 59 56 53 50 46 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 16 20 22 30 18 13 12 11 5 9 14 16 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 248 232 210 210 218 202 201 203 187 158 165 193 340 359 25 53 287 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.3 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.0 23.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 144 147 139 138 130 125 116 110 109 105 101 100 89 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 48 47 48 51 51 46 50 51 51 48 51 52 56 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 21 21 21 22 20 19 20 18 18 16 12 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 51 44 42 34 25 -3 -41 -51 -71 -43 -57 -81 -103 -120 -87 200 MB DIV 77 86 89 94 93 43 24 0 2 27 1 8 -40 -22 -32 9 19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 5 13 20 10 18 7 5 2 0 1 7 8 4 LAND (KM) 698 771 860 930 1010 1205 1443 1704 1986 2273 2520 2536 2352 2194 2065 1971 1877 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.7 21.4 23.5 25.5 27.5 29.5 31.3 32.8 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.2 166.5 167.7 168.7 169.7 171.9 174.2 176.5 178.9 181.3 183.3 184.8 186.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 14 15 14 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 34 25 19 22 15 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -29. -36. -43. -49. -53. -56. -59. -63. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -12. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -10. -16. -26. -32. -35. -38. -39. -44. -47. -52. -61. -68. -72. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.6 165.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 870.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##