* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 61 59 54 49 43 39 36 32 28 27 26 26 26 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 61 59 54 49 43 39 36 32 28 27 26 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 62 61 58 53 47 41 36 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 8 8 7 6 8 12 11 8 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -5 -6 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 34 59 63 44 30 358 17 352 38 19 86 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.0 24.9 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.5 23.4 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 129 128 121 109 102 97 93 95 94 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 59 59 60 61 60 54 49 42 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 31 21 5 22 49 65 43 41 24 -3 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 10 23 21 6 13 8 -12 -26 -14 -13 -1 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2051 2006 1961 1909 1857 1741 1659 1620 1600 1610 1636 1671 1709 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.1 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.2 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.2 130.1 129.9 129.7 129.2 129.0 129.1 129.3 129.8 130.5 131.5 132.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -28. -29. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 130.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 37.1% 25.0% 16.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 6.9% 7.0% 2.3% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 14.8% 10.7% 6.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##