* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 48 45 39 35 30 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 48 45 39 35 30 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 46 42 36 32 30 27 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 4 5 7 3 2 6 10 16 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 83 115 140 185 239 263 271 270 252 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.6 23.6 23.0 22.9 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 99 92 91 79 78 77 75 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 69 69 68 66 63 57 51 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 20 18 17 15 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 49 33 26 16 3 10 -12 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -3 -1 9 -3 0 6 6 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 -5 -7 -2 -2 -1 0 3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 434 472 534 611 724 824 854 855 831 808 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.9 119.0 120.0 121.0 122.7 124.1 125.1 125.8 126.0 126.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 8 6 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -30. -34. -38. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -21. -25. -30. -38. -42. -47. -49. -52. -54. -56. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.2 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##