* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 45 45 44 42 40 38 36 32 25 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 45 45 44 42 40 38 36 32 25 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 41 39 37 34 31 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 8 6 8 5 8 7 11 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -1 -1 1 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 21 20 57 75 19 41 11 37 354 21 35 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.4 23.6 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 130 128 123 115 104 96 92 93 95 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 58 58 57 58 56 52 47 42 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 28 32 28 23 13 41 64 62 44 40 6 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 25 19 25 21 4 16 -15 -25 -19 -23 -24 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2074 2043 2014 1974 1934 1833 1751 1688 1647 1629 1653 1672 1697 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.2 130.3 130.3 130.2 129.9 129.7 129.6 129.7 129.9 130.4 131.1 131.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 130.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.80 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.51 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 23.4% 17.5% 12.7% 8.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 8.6% 6.0% 2.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 10.7% 7.9% 5.0% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##