* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 94 92 89 90 89 89 84 80 77 76 75 71 66 63 V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 94 92 89 90 89 89 84 80 77 76 75 71 66 63 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 95 93 91 89 92 94 92 84 75 68 64 63 62 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 6 5 6 11 16 20 28 35 32 22 22 18 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -5 -1 1 8 6 4 0 7 -4 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 256 273 288 260 220 215 201 218 204 227 228 226 205 189 137 79 82 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.1 25.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 141 143 145 148 146 140 138 138 132 133 132 126 124 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 45 44 46 46 47 50 60 61 59 57 57 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 19 21 21 23 22 21 22 22 24 23 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 57 66 81 72 77 61 53 38 25 14 5 -10 -11 -14 -32 200 MB DIV 16 14 5 31 36 54 99 46 51 31 26 -4 35 -8 -8 -66 -31 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -4 0 -1 -5 2 7 9 18 26 22 21 18 8 -5 3 LAND (KM) 331 428 549 568 619 764 961 1183 1407 1624 1872 2138 2409 2686 2621 2340 2077 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.7 159.1 160.5 162.0 163.4 166.1 168.8 171.4 173.8 176.0 178.4 180.9 183.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 27 29 33 35 31 20 9 8 7 3 5 2 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -18. -23. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -10. -11. -11. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25. -29. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.6 157.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##