* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 50 51 50 50 48 45 44 40 40 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 50 51 50 50 48 45 44 40 40 39 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 43 43 43 43 42 40 37 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 8 6 10 2 8 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 0 2 0 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 20 22 21 52 48 52 7 21 25 53 25 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.4 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 135 132 125 122 116 109 105 103 101 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 58 56 56 57 54 46 41 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 24 27 25 17 22 58 80 59 58 39 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 9 7 18 18 7 22 8 -5 -35 -26 -20 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2098 2078 2059 2033 2008 1930 1846 1783 1760 1763 1784 1811 1814 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.1 130.3 130.4 130.5 130.4 130.2 130.2 130.4 130.8 131.3 131.9 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 129.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.58 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 24.8% 18.1% 13.1% 9.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 16.6% 10.0% 4.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 13.9% 9.4% 5.8% 4.2% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##