* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 91 88 89 86 88 91 89 89 88 88 89 90 87 86 82 V (KT) LAND 100 95 91 88 89 86 88 91 89 89 88 88 89 90 87 86 82 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 92 90 88 86 87 91 91 88 84 79 80 83 85 85 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 9 4 3 3 14 15 16 15 11 6 7 16 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -1 1 0 -3 -1 2 3 2 3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 262 248 260 275 314 279 207 213 199 203 217 255 249 186 189 200 182 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.5 26.7 26.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 139 140 141 142 139 140 142 138 136 130 132 134 125 127 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 44 42 44 45 45 46 46 47 47 50 54 55 55 51 51 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 19 17 19 21 20 22 22 22 22 24 23 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 43 56 64 77 75 66 43 32 23 2 -12 -17 -14 -19 -4 200 MB DIV 0 13 30 23 49 55 59 46 21 19 34 6 41 0 -6 -24 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 3 8 6 8 7 2 -8 -3 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 262 317 420 539 568 671 835 1030 1260 1491 1727 1940 2186 2447 2755 2495 2190 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.4 21.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.1 157.6 159.0 160.4 161.8 164.5 167.2 169.7 172.3 174.7 177.0 179.0 181.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 14 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 23 25 27 28 41 24 12 12 7 6 1 3 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -35. -36. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 6. 6. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -11. -14. -12. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -13. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.6 156.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 844.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##