* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 67 64 57 52 45 37 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 67 64 57 52 45 37 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 63 59 51 44 39 35 32 29 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 6 5 1 3 6 10 10 7 9 7 8 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -2 -2 1 -4 -1 -4 -1 0 0 0 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 283 346 37 59 315 258 201 221 225 229 206 218 235 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 26.9 25.9 24.9 24.5 22.9 22.5 21.6 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.4 20.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 134 123 113 109 91 87 77 77 75 74 74 74 72 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 72 70 68 68 64 60 55 51 46 43 35 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 21 19 18 18 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 33 34 41 41 37 26 32 24 15 4 -7 -11 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 55 37 21 3 2 -3 1 -13 -10 -4 -8 -5 -2 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 10 -3 -6 -1 -5 -5 -5 0 0 1 2 0 -2 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 322 325 391 410 478 630 764 882 951 969 970 947 897 841 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.5 25.7 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.9 114.9 116.0 117.1 119.2 121.2 123.0 124.5 125.5 126.2 126.7 126.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -13. -19. -25. -30. -35. -40. -45. -50. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -18. -23. -30. -38. -42. -46. -52. -57. -62. -68. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.5 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##