* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 87 85 81 82 85 92 93 88 90 88 89 91 94 92 92 V (KT) LAND 100 92 87 85 81 82 85 92 93 88 90 88 89 91 94 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 88 86 85 83 86 92 96 95 90 86 82 81 85 88 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 11 8 3 2 5 11 11 11 12 9 3 1 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -5 -3 0 -1 -5 -1 0 7 8 10 6 0 -2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 267 267 248 260 267 307 21 175 205 200 228 234 297 257 235 221 294 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 140 141 142 141 139 142 144 138 135 133 134 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 43 44 41 41 42 44 45 45 49 50 54 57 59 57 55 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 15 16 18 17 20 20 23 24 22 24 22 22 23 25 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 26 33 37 46 62 84 69 74 67 54 35 17 5 0 -15 -13 -17 200 MB DIV 1 6 4 26 33 58 40 58 16 41 14 -5 12 37 -2 -32 -33 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 0 1 10 4 4 6 1 -10 -6 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 292 267 325 424 549 628 778 965 1176 1401 1630 1860 2107 2370 2645 2854 2580 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.6 156.1 157.6 159.0 160.5 163.4 166.1 168.6 171.1 173.6 176.0 178.3 180.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 13 13 13 12 14 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 17 20 23 25 34 35 34 19 11 17 10 12 5 5 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 5. 7. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -15. -19. -18. -15. -8. -7. -12. -10. -12. -11. -9. -6. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.5 154.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 872.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##