* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042018 08/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 41 39 38 37 36 36 35 33 30 27 26 27 28 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 41 39 38 37 36 36 35 33 30 27 26 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 42 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 6 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 39 41 30 343 356 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.6 25.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 109 110 108 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 88 90 91 89 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.2 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 54 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 -9 -4 -9 -3 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 19 21 10 5 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -1 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 745 709 685 702 735 838 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.8 41.5 42.2 42.9 43.5 44.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 47.9 47.2 46.0 44.9 42.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 40.8 48.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042018 DEBBY 08/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.8% 8.5% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 3.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042018 DEBBY 08/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042018 DEBBY 08/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 41 39 38 37 36 36 35 33 30 27 26 27 28 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 37 36 35 34 34 33 31 28 25 24 25 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 34 33 32 31 31 30 28 25 22 21 22 23 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 27 26 25 25 24 22 19 16 15 16 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT