* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 37 37 37 36 35 34 32 30 28 26 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 37 37 37 36 35 34 32 30 28 26 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 35 34 33 31 29 28 26 24 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 13 7 7 4 5 2 13 12 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 0 2 0 2 0 0 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 355 356 349 334 342 229 251 225 253 251 289 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.5 24.0 23.2 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 134 135 135 129 124 115 106 102 93 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 62 63 60 58 56 54 53 49 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 10 5 6 12 17 32 36 68 114 118 95 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 1 -11 -1 -4 -9 25 11 -15 -17 -19 -8 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -8 -6 -7 -4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2047 2054 2061 2055 2051 1998 1934 1844 1777 1745 1745 1711 1706 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.7 129.2 129.5 129.9 130.1 130.2 130.1 130.2 130.6 131.4 132.5 133.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 8 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 128.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.0% 12.8% 9.1% 6.5% 7.3% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.6% 4.6% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##