* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 79 76 73 68 60 51 45 40 33 27 22 19 17 19 23 V (KT) LAND 85 81 79 76 73 68 60 51 45 40 33 27 22 19 17 19 23 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 78 74 70 60 52 44 38 34 30 27 23 20 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 3 4 1 4 5 5 6 9 7 10 5 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 319 313 319 332 13 113 198 195 187 181 191 188 211 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.3 26.3 24.6 23.8 22.6 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 147 138 127 109 101 88 81 79 78 78 79 78 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 70 71 64 66 64 64 60 57 50 46 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 33 31 29 26 23 22 21 20 17 16 13 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 42 41 33 48 56 53 29 23 20 6 4 -7 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 46 46 38 15 -1 -11 0 -5 -11 -7 5 -6 -5 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 13 9 6 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 387 351 351 355 338 420 468 595 753 879 989 1037 1080 1113 1136 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.7 24.1 25.2 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.8 114.7 116.7 118.7 120.7 122.5 124.2 125.5 126.6 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -10. -18. -25. -31. -37. -43. -47. -52. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -34. -40. -45. -51. -58. -63. -66. -68. -66. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 111.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 9.1% 8.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##