* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 91 91 91 86 80 68 58 49 40 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 91 91 91 86 80 68 58 49 40 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 88 85 74 62 50 41 35 30 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 10 5 2 4 3 7 9 12 14 13 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 0 2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 318 307 324 286 70 120 154 202 211 168 149 136 146 138 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.1 25.2 24.3 22.7 21.8 21.2 20.9 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 150 145 136 116 106 89 79 72 69 67 70 72 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 72 72 71 71 68 65 61 54 51 46 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 34 34 32 32 28 25 23 22 18 16 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 39 45 40 49 59 69 52 33 34 35 49 46 36 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 56 44 43 48 28 13 2 18 -13 5 -14 3 -8 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 19 16 13 8 0 -5 -2 -3 -1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 452 392 364 385 367 421 469 562 717 848 976 1055 1104 1135 1180 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.0 23.5 24.7 25.8 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.6 112.4 113.3 114.2 116.2 118.2 120.2 122.1 123.8 125.3 126.6 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -48. -53. -58. -64. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -10. -22. -32. -41. -50. -62. -70. -77. -81. -81. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.9 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 16.7% 12.8% 9.5% 6.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.8% 4.3% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##