* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 55 58 60 61 61 57 57 54 50 47 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 55 58 60 61 61 57 57 54 50 47 45 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 55 57 59 57 54 50 47 44 41 37 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 11 8 9 5 1 3 3 1 12 15 15 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -3 -1 4 2 1 1 -2 -4 -4 0 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 25 27 12 11 64 285 119 345 169 208 227 250 276 219 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.6 24.1 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 135 134 133 132 130 128 124 120 113 108 109 104 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 62 61 61 55 53 50 45 38 38 31 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 15 16 17 17 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 4 16 27 27 27 32 39 37 38 45 102 117 88 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 9 17 -3 -17 -15 2 19 5 -4 -17 -38 -31 -23 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -6 -8 -9 -8 -8 -1 -3 0 0 -9 -9 -6 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1894 1964 2035 2084 2125 2159 2137 2071 2024 1984 1973 1991 2033 1829 1593 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.8 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.0 127.9 128.7 129.4 130.4 130.9 131.0 131.2 131.5 132.2 133.2 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 24 14 9 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 12. 12. 9. 5. 2. -0. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 126.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 25.3% 19.4% 14.6% 10.1% 12.4% 15.5% 11.7% Logistic: 3.1% 11.8% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 14.1% 8.0% 5.9% 4.4% 4.6% 5.4% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##