* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 101 103 104 104 96 82 71 60 48 40 31 27 22 23 24 V (KT) LAND 90 97 101 103 104 104 96 82 71 60 48 40 31 27 22 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 101 101 100 93 82 67 54 44 38 32 28 25 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 12 10 2 1 3 3 9 17 11 8 4 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 0 0 -1 -2 1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -5 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 349 353 327 312 226 107 140 262 231 233 189 211 208 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.6 27.2 25.2 24.1 22.6 21.5 21.0 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 156 151 137 116 104 88 76 70 68 70 73 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 75 74 75 74 73 73 69 64 62 57 53 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 33 33 34 33 29 27 24 22 21 19 18 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 32 40 33 31 42 52 59 82 56 34 36 44 50 54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 145 89 48 25 56 18 23 11 16 -5 12 -9 -1 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -6 5 20 12 3 0 -4 -9 -6 -1 0 3 5 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 512 522 450 389 352 356 411 460 562 722 852 999 1086 1179 1282 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 22.0 23.5 24.9 26.0 26.7 27.0 26.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.4 112.1 114.0 116.1 118.3 120.3 122.2 124.0 125.7 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -14. -21. -28. -35. -41. -47. -52. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 1. 4. 7. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 6. -8. -19. -30. -42. -50. -59. -63. -68. -67. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.5 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 27.0% 19.8% 15.4% 10.4% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.4% 24.3% 10.5% 6.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 26.6% 10.5% 7.5% 5.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.7% 20.6% 12.6% 9.2% 4.7% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##