* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 57 60 61 62 63 64 63 62 57 52 47 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 57 60 61 62 63 64 63 62 57 52 47 43 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 57 61 62 63 64 63 63 61 58 53 48 43 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 9 10 10 2 5 3 3 9 15 17 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 1 -3 -2 -1 -1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 18 17 21 4 31 25 43 132 288 265 268 232 251 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.9 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 137 135 133 134 132 126 120 113 106 100 101 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 62 60 60 58 55 53 47 43 40 36 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 4 17 21 18 26 30 37 52 87 145 155 149 135 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 30 5 0 0 -21 6 3 25 12 -4 -41 -32 -22 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -9 -5 -9 -9 -6 -6 0 0 -1 -1 -26 -10 -18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1722 1793 1866 1934 2000 2060 2066 2022 1969 1915 1881 1883 1888 1965 1895 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.3 22.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.4 126.3 127.2 128.0 129.3 130.1 130.4 130.7 131.0 131.5 132.2 133.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 23 27 20 12 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 27.2% 20.9% 16.0% 10.6% 13.3% 16.4% 12.3% Logistic: 5.9% 18.7% 7.8% 5.2% 2.9% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 8.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 18.2% 9.7% 7.2% 4.7% 5.5% 6.0% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##