* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 84 95 100 107 115 112 99 82 69 55 43 32 24 18 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 84 95 100 107 115 112 99 82 69 55 43 32 24 18 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 84 91 97 101 102 90 74 60 48 39 33 28 24 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 9 14 7 1 3 2 4 14 14 20 6 6 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 3 2 2 2 -3 2 -4 -2 0 -6 -2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 47 34 22 351 331 278 138 177 171 209 217 223 196 180 207 282 269 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.1 27.9 25.6 24.4 22.6 21.4 21.1 20.8 20.9 21.3 21.7 21.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 162 161 156 144 120 108 88 75 72 68 69 73 76 77 79 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 76 74 73 73 69 70 64 62 59 62 55 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 30 33 30 34 37 36 32 29 27 23 22 21 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 38 45 36 58 56 79 47 57 48 53 49 61 50 23 8 200 MB DIV 116 132 151 109 57 35 44 20 -8 -4 13 -2 2 -13 3 -4 -9 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -4 3 16 14 -8 0 -15 -12 -11 0 4 5 12 5 3 LAND (KM) 491 497 504 443 380 358 344 416 489 646 776 907 1018 1141 1246 1326 1400 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.0 19.7 21.4 23.2 24.7 26.0 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.6 111.3 113.1 115.2 117.4 119.5 121.5 123.4 125.2 126.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 18 15 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -35. -40. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 5. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 6. 3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 20. 25. 32. 40. 37. 24. 7. -6. -20. -32. -43. -51. -57. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.0 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.6% 50.0% 33.9% 23.7% 12.8% 17.0% 13.2% 7.6% Logistic: 16.4% 20.4% 9.8% 5.1% 0.8% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 37.8% 33.3% 36.3% 25.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.9% 34.6% 26.7% 18.1% 5.1% 6.6% 4.5% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##