* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 132 126 121 110 99 92 90 86 86 83 86 87 85 86 85 V (KT) LAND 135 135 132 126 121 110 99 92 90 86 86 83 86 87 85 86 85 V (KT) LGEM 135 132 127 120 113 102 93 88 87 89 89 90 92 92 89 88 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 3 1 4 5 6 1 6 4 6 12 15 16 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 2 5 6 4 0 -1 4 -3 0 5 2 7 8 4 0 SHEAR DIR 58 58 2 260 145 152 207 223 110 288 284 234 214 225 231 242 235 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 139 139 138 137 138 140 137 138 143 144 145 146 143 137 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 45 43 41 38 35 33 35 36 41 43 50 55 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 19 20 20 19 20 21 21 23 22 24 25 23 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 40 23 18 39 43 60 82 86 78 82 81 76 70 79 73 200 MB DIV 29 15 -15 -31 -5 8 6 -10 14 -6 2 8 40 56 70 36 25 700-850 TADV -3 -10 -16 -13 -7 2 2 -6 0 0 0 -5 4 0 5 16 15 LAND (KM) 1228 1077 927 779 636 392 248 422 572 722 924 1128 1310 1481 1636 1776 1934 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.5 146.9 148.4 149.8 152.8 155.9 159.1 162.2 165.1 167.8 170.2 172.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 10 9 8 11 15 21 31 24 38 44 19 15 20 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -35. -46. -55. -62. -68. -71. -72. -72. -72. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 4. 7. 7. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -9. -14. -25. -36. -43. -45. -49. -49. -52. -49. -48. -50. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.5 144.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1052.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 94 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##