* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 88 95 107 113 115 105 94 80 66 54 43 34 28 20 V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 88 95 107 113 115 105 94 80 66 54 43 34 28 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 65 76 85 93 104 111 107 89 69 55 44 36 31 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 9 12 8 11 12 8 1 7 7 15 16 18 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 4 0 -3 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 326 272 24 36 13 348 340 331 326 266 285 277 285 274 271 277 272 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.2 28.5 26.8 25.5 23.5 22.5 21.0 21.3 20.9 21.1 21.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 164 163 157 150 132 119 98 87 72 74 70 72 78 78 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 72 71 72 73 76 71 71 70 71 71 66 60 54 45 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 26 31 30 33 37 42 39 37 32 28 25 23 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 19 20 23 43 50 60 66 70 105 90 66 78 68 89 82 200 MB DIV 123 110 111 90 118 90 46 66 15 49 19 1 6 7 -8 -1 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 -9 -10 3 7 4 -2 -3 -5 -2 1 0 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 535 536 544 554 569 535 467 474 498 563 656 818 968 1080 1213 1385 1574 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 18.2 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.9 25.0 26.0 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.3 109.8 111.1 112.8 114.6 116.5 118.6 120.8 123.0 125.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 34 33 29 15 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 8. 10. 16. 26. 26. 23. 16. 10. 6. 2. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 33. 40. 52. 58. 60. 50. 40. 25. 11. -1. -12. -21. -27. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 18.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 17.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 15.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -15.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 16.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 12.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 60.0% 86.6% 79.7% 69.4% 50.2% 49.7% 50.9% 14.0% Logistic: 67.8% 82.9% 73.8% 68.9% 26.1% 70.9% 16.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 72.5% 76.8% 82.5% 74.9% 14.7% 61.6% 18.9% 0.1% Consensus: 66.8% 82.1% 78.7% 71.1% 30.3% 60.7% 28.7% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##