* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 123 121 118 110 104 96 92 91 89 90 90 93 89 86 81 V (KT) LAND 125 125 123 121 118 110 104 96 92 91 89 90 90 93 89 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 119 114 110 104 101 95 90 90 93 95 99 102 98 91 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 2 3 3 2 3 7 12 11 5 4 15 24 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 1 1 5 4 0 0 -6 -2 3 4 7 6 10 SHEAR DIR 25 51 81 70 16 116 98 229 8 19 29 58 211 217 214 222 207 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 137 139 140 138 137 137 138 140 137 138 143 145 145 146 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 48 51 49 49 43 40 36 33 34 36 37 41 45 49 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 22 21 23 21 20 23 23 25 24 27 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 54 51 40 25 45 58 75 90 86 81 92 108 101 92 85 200 MB DIV 11 17 21 -2 -13 18 4 5 -13 0 -20 6 28 65 71 18 -13 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -8 -9 -11 -5 0 4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 1 4 9 9 LAND (KM) 1521 1371 1222 1069 917 610 353 273 463 604 760 963 1175 1357 1512 1663 1825 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.7 144.1 145.5 147.0 150.1 153.3 156.5 159.5 162.5 165.4 168.1 170.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 14 16 10 8 10 18 22 33 24 36 42 19 16 21 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -28. -38. -46. -52. -58. -61. -61. -61. -62. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. -1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 7. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -7. -15. -21. -29. -33. -33. -36. -35. -35. -32. -36. -39. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.9 141.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 890.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##