* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 54 65 77 87 103 110 113 106 99 89 78 67 56 46 39 33 V (KT) LAND 45 54 65 77 87 103 110 113 106 99 89 78 67 56 46 39 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 62 72 83 101 109 107 93 76 60 48 39 32 28 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 5 4 9 10 14 9 10 5 4 7 11 11 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 4 7 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 27 17 11 66 44 16 352 344 326 290 258 216 254 291 281 283 282 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.7 28.8 28.0 26.1 24.3 23.4 22.0 21.0 21.6 21.2 21.5 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 164 166 165 161 153 145 125 106 96 82 71 78 74 77 80 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 73 73 75 74 73 72 72 69 71 68 63 57 51 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 20 24 27 32 34 37 35 35 33 30 27 24 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -13 0 21 23 32 40 43 42 46 80 102 69 74 85 101 109 200 MB DIV 133 121 89 108 76 101 28 75 31 47 25 1 9 -12 4 -8 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 4 8 -3 6 4 4 0 6 0 -3 2 LAND (KM) 537 523 518 514 519 551 464 425 438 551 602 708 872 1027 1178 1330 1504 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.7 19.0 20.5 21.9 23.1 24.2 25.2 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 108.9 110.1 111.6 113.2 115.2 117.4 119.5 121.5 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 7 9 10 11 12 12 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 33 34 33 21 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 16. 14. 11. 7. 3. -0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 28. 29. 29. 24. 20. 14. 9. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 20. 32. 42. 58. 65. 68. 61. 54. 44. 33. 22. 11. 1. -6. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 17.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 8.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 12.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -13.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 10.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.7% 75.1% 62.3% 49.9% 35.3% 31.6% 61.4% 29.7% Logistic: 68.7% 90.9% 85.7% 81.8% 33.9% 85.1% 22.9% 6.5% Bayesian: 59.4% 82.9% 86.0% 79.4% 21.7% 73.6% 43.6% 1.2% Consensus: 53.6% 82.9% 78.0% 70.3% 30.3% 63.4% 42.6% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##