* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 117 115 109 103 93 87 82 80 81 81 82 85 87 87 83 V (KT) LAND 120 121 117 115 109 103 93 87 82 80 81 81 82 85 87 87 83 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 114 109 105 98 93 88 85 86 88 92 98 103 102 98 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 2 1 7 2 1 1 4 2 10 11 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 2 1 0 1 0 -7 -7 0 3 7 8 SHEAR DIR 12 19 45 65 82 342 142 179 177 122 6 328 319 200 199 218 18 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 141 137 136 133 132 135 138 138 140 140 142 147 151 148 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 53 53 51 49 46 43 41 38 35 35 37 41 45 50 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 22 20 21 20 21 20 20 21 21 21 23 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 42 48 50 38 24 49 47 62 64 62 66 67 62 58 19 200 MB DIV -3 -22 -7 9 6 -16 28 20 30 -7 -12 -15 22 37 25 -25 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -2 1 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 6 9 LAND (KM) 1809 1673 1537 1385 1233 927 621 370 237 389 533 654 853 1080 1284 1463 1652 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.6 139.9 141.1 142.5 143.9 146.8 149.9 153.0 155.9 158.8 161.7 164.5 167.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 11 13 14 7 3 6 12 21 28 24 20 43 22 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -25. -35. -43. -49. -53. -56. -56. -57. -58. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -3. -1. -0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -5. -11. -17. -27. -33. -38. -40. -39. -39. -38. -35. -33. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.5 138.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 821.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 63 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##